IOD Special: Iran’s Nuclear Program, A Multi-Trillion-Dollar Strategic Misfire

Iran’s controversial nuclear program has not only isolated the country geopolitically and drawn it into a destructive war with Israel — it’s also one of the most economically damaging state strategies in modern Iranian history, according to a new analysis by Iran Open Data (IOD).

IOD estimates that over the past 15 years, the nuclear initiative has cost Iran billions in direct expenditures and up to $3 trillion in lost economic opportunities due to international sanctions and isolation. That staggering figure makes it perhaps Iran’s costliest strategic gamble in the post-revolution era.

Driving the news

• For the first time, Iran’s 2025 national budget explicitly lists nuclear-related expenditures: 16 trillion rials (approx. $313 million USD) — with 75% of it (12 trillion rials) coming from oil revenues under the opaque label “special projects.”
  
• In the past, nuclear-related allocations were buried under vague or classified budget lines, making public scrutiny nearly impossible.
  

Behind the numbers

IOD’s calculations show:

• Direct cost: If Iran has spent an average of $313M annually for 15 years, total direct spending reaches about $5 billion.
• Indirect cost: Factoring in sanctions and lost growth potential, Iran’s economy may have lost between $900 billion and $3.1 trillion.

What if Iran hadn’t pursued its nuclear program?

IOD modeled four economic growth scenarios comparing Iran to global and regional benchmarks. All reveal massive opportunity losses:

• If Iran had grown like Turkey:
  Estimated lost output: $2.28T (2015 prices) → $3.14T (2025 Q1 adjusted)

• If Iran matched Saudi Arabia’s growth (higher baseline scenario):
  Estimated lost output: $1.26T (2015 prices) → $1.66T (2025 Q1 adjusted)

• If Iran matched Global average growth (lower baseline scenario):
  Estimated lost output: $730B (2015 prices) → $960B (2025 Q1 adjusted)

• If Iran kept pace with the Middle East average:
  Estimated lost output: $678B (2015 prices) → $892B (2025 Q1 adjusted)

The real toll of Iran’s nuclear ambitions lies not just in centrifuges or uranium stockpiles, but in decades of economic stagnation, crippling sanctions, brain drain, and lost global integration.

Now, the fallout is not only economic. The program has helped fuel a spiral into regional confrontation, culminating in open war with Israel — a conflict exacting a growing toll in human lives, infrastructure, and national stability.