Sanctions Sidestep Costs Iran One-Fifth of Oil Revenues
Iran is losing roughly 20% of its potential oil export revenues as it tries to bypass U.S. sanctions, according to a new analysis by Iran Open Data (IOD). Despite rising shipments to countries like China and Malaysia, Tehran’s oil revenues continue to fall short due to the steep costs of evading restrictions.
By the numbers:
- From March 2024 to March 2025, Iran earned $23.2 billion from oil exports, including crude, gas condensates, and fuel oil.
- Yet, based on tanker-tracking firm Kpler and average Brent prices ($82.5 per barrel), Iran should have earned over $28 billion — a $5 billion shortfall.
- The loss reflects the expenses of sanctions evasion: re-shipping operations, using intermediaries and shell firms, hiring "shadow fleet" tankers, offering steep discounts to Chinese buyers, and storing oil offshore.
- Similar losses were recorded the previous year: $36 billion in reported earnings vs. a projected $44 billion.
Zoom out:
Since October 2024, following Iran’s second missile strike on Israel, Washington has intensified enforcement by targeting tankers involved in Iranian oil smuggling. This crackdown appears to have disrupted oil unloading at Chinese ports and led to a build-up of unsold oil at sea.
What’s next:
According to the IMF’s May forecast, Iran's daily oil exports could decline by 300,000 barrels in 2025, driven by renewed U.S. “maximum pressure” policies, echoing the Trump-era strategy. At the same time, the ongoing talks between Tehran and Washington remain active, signaling a potential for limited de-escalation even as pressure intensifies.
