Iran’s Grid Faces Historic Power Deficit — Officials Warn of “Fan and Water Jug” Summer

Iran is staring down a deepening electricity crisis, with a record 25,000 megawatt shortfall threatening homes, businesses and the national grid itself. Daily blackouts are already becoming the norm, and with summer looming, energy officials are sounding the alarm — some even advising Iranians to brace for heatwaves by arming themselves with traditional cooling tools like hand fans and water jugs.

A Chronic Crisis, Not a Glitch
The shortfall is not a seasonal hiccup. It is the result of over a decade of structural decline:
- Power demand has consistently outpaced supply since 2018, with deficits peaking at 25% in summer and 15% in winter.
- Subscriber numbers are growing by up to 1 million annually, while electricity consumption is doubling the rate of power generation.
- Power production growth, which once exceeded 20% pre-1979 revolution, has now dwindled to a mere 2% per year.

Data shows that even if Iran were to import the entire electricity output of neighboring countries like Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkmenistan, the current shortfall would remain. Experts estimate that even a fivefold increase in annual power generation growth would take at least a decade to fully close the gap.

What’s Causing the Collapse?
-Overdependence on fossil fuels: Over 90% of Iran’s electricity comes from thermal power plants. Renewables and nuclear energy make up just 1% each, with hydropower hampered by droughts and low reservoir levels.
- Massive energy loss: Roughly 13% of electricity — equivalent to 40 terawatt-hours — is lost in transmission, nearly 40% of total household usage.
- Aging infrastructure: Some 14.5% of electricity is produced in plants with under 20% efficiency. The average efficiency of thermal plants remains below 40%, improving just 0.1% annually.
- Exports despite shortages: Iran continues to export electricity to offset budget shortfalls, despite domestic blackouts.

The Government Response
In a bid to reduce consumption, the government has:
- Adjusted working hours in public offices.
- Declared Thursdays off in select provinces to curb energy use during peak heat.

But critics argue these are short-term band-aids for a long-term structural wound.

Mehdi Masaeli, head of Iran’s power industry syndicate, described the crisis as beyond quick fixes — calling it a “deep surgical case” with no rapid cure. His warning: brace for a very hard summer.