Poll: 93% Have Considered Leaving the Country
Some 93% of Iranians have seriously considered emigrating, a recent poll by Iran Open Data suggests. About half the respondents say they have taken practical steps to emigrate themselves. Those with university education are more likely to have taken steps to emigrate than those without university education. More than half the respondents say they have considered emigrating between the years 2009 to 2019. The highest number of people who have considered emigrating are between the ages of 29 to 30.
With the acceleration of Iran’s "brain drain" problem, emigration has become a frequent subject of public discussion. In recent years, widespread emigration has surpassed the brain drain level; Skilled workers, in addition to highly educated professionals, are leaving the country en masse. The Iranian emigration Yearbook 2022 states that “emigration can be considered the fastest growing social phenomenon in Iran over the past two years. The hopelessness, economic instability, and the decline of fundamental freedoms such as free internet, along with the critical situation of other factors such as economic, social, and political factors, has caused a rapid increase in general and massive emigration.
Using the latest available data from international organizations and population censuses published by statistical centers of destination countries, this report estimates the Iranian population (individuals born in Iran) in the top 20 countries with the largest Iranian population in the world to be around two million people. Anecdotal accounts suggest the Iranian population outside the country is between four to eight million.
In the absence of significant data on this subject, Iran Open Data has asked Iranian social media users to share their experiences by taking a poll. This poll was available to users from February 11, 2023 to March 29, 2023. During this period, 1,567 individuals participated in the poll.
Of the respondents, 72% were male and 27% were female. About 1% of respondents identified as a gender other than male or female. 97% of respondents said they lived in urban areas, and the remaining 3% said they lived in rural areas. The respondents were scattered in 31 provinces. As expected, the majority of respondents reported living in Tehran.
The lowest response rate was from residents of South Khorasan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces. The average stated age of respondents was 34 years. Of the respondents 44% said they did not have a bachelor's degree, and 56% said they did.
Also, 42% of the respondents were single, 49% were married, and the others said they had been married in the past. 34% of respondents said they had a permanent job, and 46% said they were in contractual or temporary employment. 14% of respondents said they were retired or unemployed, and 6% said they were in school.
The following short report provides a detailed overview of the poll results.
Thinking about emigration
- 93% of respondents say they have seriously considered leaving the country.
- Respondents who said they were residents of rural areas indicated they considered leaving the country less than the residents of urban areas.
Time period when respondents first considered immigration
- More than half the respondents stated that they first thought about immigration between the years 1388-1398. (2009-2019)
- Four out of every 10 respondents stated that they first thought about emigration between 1398 (2019) and the present.
- Overall, 90% of respondents say they have thought about leaving the country after the year 1388 (2009).
- 10% of respondents say that they first thought about leaving the country in 1398 (2019).
- Single respondents said they considered emigration after 1388, while married individuals said they considered it after 1398. However, individuals who were previously married (divorced/widowed) said they considered it before 1388.
- Respondents with temporary/contractual employment said they had thought about emigration since 1388. Those who said they are employed or going to school thought about it after 1398. However, respondents who said they had permanent jobs, were unemployed, or had retired said they considered immigration more before 1388.
Age at which respondents considered emigration
- Almost half of the respondents stated that they first thought about emigrating between the ages of 20 and 30.
- About one in four respondents said they first had such thoughts before the age of 20.
- Men said they thought about emigration for the first time at younger ages than women. The opposite is true for women.
- Respondents with university degrees said they considered leaving the country for the first time at higher ages compared to those without university degrees.
- Married or previously married individuals said they first considered emigrating at older ages compared to single individuals.
- Individuals with permanent jobs thought about emigrating from the country for the first time at higher ages. Those with contractual and temporary jobs said they considered it between 20 and 30 years old.
Practical steps for emigration
Although 93% of respondents said they have thought about emigration at some point in their lives, only about 55% of them said they have taken practical steps towards it.
- Individuals with university education are more likely than those without university education to have taken practical steps towards emigration.
The likelihood of considering emigration in the future
- Approximately 60% of respondents say they are more than 50% likely to emigrate in the not-too-distant future.
- 27% of respondents say they are more than 90% likely to emigrate in the not-too-distant future.
- The probability of considering emigration is higher among people with university education than among those without one.
- The probability of taking action to leave the country is higher among students (university and high school) than among unemployed, jobless, and retired individuals.
Emigration of family and friends
- 93% of the respondents say they know someone among their family or friends who has migrated abroad.