Power Outages In Iran; Low Consumption Of Residential Subscribers According To Ministry Of Energy’s Data

In mid-January 2021, several major cities in Iran experienced power outages and widespread blackouts. Officials at the time attributed these blackouts to a variety of factors. Some blamed bitcoin mining and natural gas shortages while others blamed rising electricity consumption of the residential subscribers. 

For example, in an official statement, Tehran Power Distribution Company, called upon Tehran’s residents to reduce their consumption by 10% to help the stability of the power distribution network.

At the same time, the Ministry of Energy’s published data showed the lowest level of consumption by residential subscribers in the period from December 2020 to January 2021. Iran Open Data’s research shows that over the last decade, the production and consumption of electricity in Iran increased with a moderate and predictable rate. By the end of January 2021, the total production capacity of power plants was 85 gigawatts. This production level can easily supply the country's power needs even at peak times, which is in August and September.

Consumption in March 2020-December 2020

The Ministry of Energy’s website has published data on the production and consumption levels (bi-monthly sales) of electrical energy in the country. According to this data, energy consumption in the current calendar year was about seven percent  higher than the same period the prior year. This rate of growth is almost the same as last year's rate in the same period.

The largest share of the country's energy is consumed by the industrial sector, which is about 35% of the total consumption. This year, industrial consumption has increased by about eight percent compared to the same period last year.

Figure 1 shows the total electrical energy consumed by each sector by the end of January 2021. Unlike many other countries, Iran experiences its peak consumption during the summer, especially in August and September. As the temperatures drop and the use of cooling appliances decreases, the consumption of the residential sector decreases.

Production in March 2020-December 2020

The country's electrical energy production (including energy consumption of power plants) from the start of this calendar year to the end of the month of January, amounted to 290,000 gigawatt-hours, which has increased by about four percent compared to the same period the previous year

The Statistics and Information Center of the Ministry of Energy reports that total power plants’ available practical capacity by the end of January 2021, compared to the same month last year, has increased by about one percent. The total production capacity has never been used, and the level of production has been beyond the distribution capacity of the distribution networks.

Production and Consumption of the Country in the Last 10 Years

Figure 2 shows the total electricity and consumption between the years 2010 and 2019. It shows that the amount of production and consumption in the country in the past 10 years has increased with a moderate and predictable rate. During this period, the annual production grew about four percent  and the annual consumption grew approximately five percent.

Examining this chart, we see a production surplus during the past 10 years. We also conclude that both production and consumption has increased, per capita, during the same period.

The industrial sector is responsible for the other portion of consumption increase over the past 10 years. Lack of investment in electricity industry infrastructure, and reduced productivity, are factors affecting the increase in consumption during this period. In the next figure, we will elaborate on different sectors’ consumption patterns during the 10-year period.

Figure 3 shows each sector’s consumption between 2010 and 2019. During this period, the average consumption of the industrial sector is higher, by about six percent, than the other sectors. The average consumption rate of the residential sector grew by five percent  and the general sector grew by two percent

Although power outages are not without precedence in the first half of the year, it has been very rare in winter.

Following this year's blackouts, responsible governmental organizations in Iran blamed each other, and no one ultimately accepted responsibility for the crisis. Others blamed citizens for the power outages, pointing at high consumption rates. However, according to the Ministry of Energy’s data, the residential sector had one of the lowest consumption rates at the time of these outages. It is likely that we can eliminate residential consumption from the possible causes of this crisis.

This article was originally published in Persian (available here).