Decades of Oil Data Show Iran’s Steady Decline as Oil Producer
British Petroleum (BP) data from 1965 to 2022 indicates that Iran was, at times, the third or fourth-largest oil producer in the world after the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. However, currently, its ranking has fallen to a lower eighth position behind Canada, Iraq, China, and the United Arab Emirates.
The decline in Iran's status in the global oil production can be attributed to three factors: revolution, war, and sanctions.
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The above chart illustrates the volume of oil production, including crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, gas condensates, and liquid gas.
A 60-year oil production comparison between Iran and its rivals shows that, despite some periodic fluctuations, the overall oil production trend for Iran’s rivals has been upward; Iran’s oil production trend, however, has been different.
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After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran's oil production declined from over 6 million barrels a day to less than 2 million. Not until the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988 could Iran reach a production level of 3 million barrels a day. However, between 1991 and 2010, it had relative stability and consistent growth. By the end of 2000s, Iran succeeded in producing 4.5 million barrels per day, but this level did not continue.
With the onset of the nuclear dispute and sanctions, Iran's oil production once again dropped to around 3.5 million barrels a day. After the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran's oil production saw a significant surge and approached the 5 million barrels a day mark for two years. However, this did not persist. The largest decline in Iran's oil production after the revolution occurred in 2018, following the United States' withdrawal from the JCPOA. In 2020, Iran's oil production dropped to a level similar to that of the 1980s.
BP estimates that last year, Iran's oil production (crude oil, gas condensates, and liquid gas) exceeded 3.8 million barrels a day, equivalent to the oil production of the 1980s.
Before the revolution, between 1977 and 1979, oil production in the United States and Saudi Arabia was only 70% and 40% higher than Iran, respectively. However, currently, the oil production of the United States and Saudi Arabia is 220% to 370% higher, or 3 to 5 times higher than Iran’s.
