Why Has Khuzestan Become the Center of Crisis?
The southern province of Khuzestan has recently become the center of a new crisis in Iran. Anti-regime protests have erupted in many of its cities, which have been met by deadly response of the security forces. But the protests, sparked by the province’s water shortage, are not the only problem that Khuzestan faces.
Although the oil-rich Khuzestan is the second largest contributor to Iran’s economy, its people are struggling with one of the highest rates of misery and absolute poverty. In a sign of widespread political discontent, Khuzestan also had one of the lowest voter turnout in recent elections, as well as the highest number of fatalities in the bloody protests of November 2019.
Drought
Only 1.1% of Khuzestan is in normal conditions according to the latest statistics from the National Drought Center of Iran. The other 98.9% of the province is struggling with various degrees of long-term drought, spanning over the course of 10 years.
Over 46% of Khuzestan is struggling with a 10-year "very severe drought" conditions. 24% of the province is facing "severe drought" conditions. A little more than 25% of Khuzestan is affected by "moderate drought”, and the remaining 4% are struggling with "mild drought" conditions.
Among the 31 provinces of Iran, Khuzestan’s drought is the third worst in the country, following the Hormozgan province.
Drought ratio is calculated using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). It is based on the decrease in rainfall over a ten-year period, compared to normal conditions.
Provinces to the north and east of Khuzestan are also struggling with drought. To the west of Khuzestan, the provinces of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad have the worst drought conditions in the country. In the last 10 years, the decrease in rainfall has caused 99.8% of this province to be affected by various degrees of drought. More than 95% of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari is also affected by drought and more than 91% of Ilam, and 67% of Lorestan, are facing drought conditions.
Mismanagement of Water Resources
Drought and reduced rainfall are only a part of the water crisis in Khuzestan. Mismanagement of water resources is also an important factor contributing to drought in the province. Improper, and sometimes devastating, dam construction, such as Gotvand Dam, unrestrained growth in agriculture, improper water consumption upstream and diversion all contribute to the water crisis in Khuzestan.
Official statistics show that the situation in Khuzestan is extremely critical. The country suffers from shortages of drinkable water and water stored in dams.
According to data published by the Statistics Center of Iran’s 2019 Statistics Yearbook, 72% of Iran’s total water consumption came from ten of Khuzestan’s water reservoirs while Khuzestan’s share of all the waters entering reservoirs in Iran, has only been 52%.
Link to Table
Economic Crisis
Environmental crisis is not the only crisis happening in Khuzestan. Indicators and official data portray the fragility of Khuzestan’s economy.
Based on the data taken from Regional Accounts of 2019, published by the Statistics Center, about 15% of Iranian economy’s value added is produced in Khuzestan. Therefore, Khuzestan is the second largest economy in Iran after Tehran, but its people do benefit much from this.
Comparing household income and expenditure, examining 2019 data, shows that the average household income in this province is about 15% lower than the national average.
Despite having large industries, Khuzestan has a high rate of unemployment. The province has the fifth highest unemployment rate in the country. The Statistics Center reports that this province had a 13.9%unemployment rate in 2020 while the national average was 6.9%.
Inflation rate in Khuzestan is also elevated. Last year, this province had the 15th highest inflation rate in the country, according to the Statistics Center.
Misery index is calculated from the addition of unemployment rate and inflation. Due to a combination of high inflation and high rates of unemployment, Khuzestan has one of the highest misery indices in the country. This province is one of the seven provinces of Iran with a misery index above 50. Khuzestan also has a high rate of absolute poverty. The latest official poverty data are from five years ago. This data shows that, in 2016, Khuzestan ranked 11th in the country in terms of the percentage of residents who reside below the absolute poverty rate.
Access to Public Services
Despite the province being an important contributor to Iran’s economy, it has limited access to public services. For example, in 2021, Khuzestan’s provincial budget per capita is less than 963,000 tomans per resident despite large planned development projects.
The quality of social services in Khuzestan is also lower than other parts of the country. Based on the data taken from Statistics Annual Publication of 2021, published by the Statistics Center, the hospital beds available per capita in this province stands at 1.53 beds per thousand people, while the average ratio in the country is 1.64. In terms of per capita hospital beds, Khuzestan ranks 20th among the 31 provinces of Iran.
Public Dissatisfaction
Although the country, as a whole, is currently at a critical juncture, The severity of the environmental and economic crises in Khuzestan, as well as the public dissatisfaction is higher than other parts of the country.
The frustration of Khuzestan’s residents is made evident by the protests that have been occuring in the last few years. Khuzestan had the highest number of fatalities during the bloody events of November 2019, according to Amnesty International.
Khuzestan also has had one of the lowest voter turnout in the country. In the 2017 presidential election, Khuzestan had the sixth lowest turnout in the country with a rate of approximately 57%. In the 11th parliamentary elections, held in March of 2019, Khuzestan's voter turnout was less than 43%. This was the 11th lowest turnout in the country. In the 2021 presidential election, the officially announced voter turnout for Khuzestan was less than 50%, ranking the province as having the 14th lowest turnout in the country.
This article was originally published in Persian (available here).
